Jai-Alai Question of the Week

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#527 - How about a handicapping tautology?

Posted on May 4, 2014 at 08:57:14 AM by Tiger

First, let's define 'tautology'. In logic, a tautology is a proposition that is true under all possible conditions of the variables. So, here it comes:

But, before we get down to the real nitty-gritty, do you think it's possible to refute that proposition? If so, tell us what we've missed.

OK, then. It's pretty simple, isn't it? Just choose the bet with the maximum EV. Works in roulette, blackjack, jai-alai - you name it. Let's look at the elements of the equation:

Please note that an inability to compute the two variables accurately in no way diminishes the truth of the proposition.

So, what kind of calculations do you with these two variables? If you don't try to maximize EV, then, pray tell, what DO you do?

For simplicity, please confine the discussion to pari-mutuel Win betting, though the same concept applies to any jai-alai bet (you Texas hold'em fans can try another forum)

This is a STATISTICAL question, so "I always play 6-8" or "I always bet the hot hand", though interesting, doesn't really advance the discussion.

Anyone care to take a crack at this?


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