There is a probability for each post. But to know the probability of Goiko/Cisneros to win in post 4? There's a million variables that you don't deal with in other games. What is the probability of them to win when the 5 is Aritz/Lopez? Or that team in post 1? Or when Aritz, Lopez, Irastorza are all scratched? For any given game I don't think that we can confidently say that we can calculate the probability precisely. We can estimate at best. Then that multiplied times the (also estimated) expected payoff gives us a rough number. But the idea of EV is that the number is precise. We could 'calculate' a positive EV when in fact it is slightly negative in reality...due to our values not being precisely known.
