Post 4 is the lowest-numbered (one of two) posts that can run
out in 6 points in the first round. Because of that, only two
other teams can have points if this happens, reducing the number
of surviving combinations. A #5 runout (with more points already
garnered) produces more possible combos.
So, you can get:
4-1-3, 4-3-1, 4-2-3 or 4-3-2 with 1-point playoff
4-1-x or 4-2-x with a multi-point playoff
Like your chances?