"...I think that putting a chip on 4/13 in every 7-pt singles games where the key player has ANY kind of runout potential is a sophisticated angle, and probably a long-term winner."
Interesting thought, but I would lean towards no statistical long term winning from any post.
If you only wagered average or better win% players (12%+), and you assume $120/$1 payout, you could expect to win 12/100 which would yield about $1500 in return.
Thats only if you won EVERY game with your covered #'s. Of course you would lose some to non covered wagers. The 'run out' covers about 60% of the likely numbers for a Post 4, so you could expect to lose about 40% even when post 4 wins due to uncovered numbers.
This would reduce your expected wins from 12 to about 8 therefore reducing your expected return to about $1000.
Now wagering on those 100 games would cost: 100 Games * $10/gm bet = $1000 wagered
4/12/ALL $8
4/3/12 $2
You would be teetering on break even and hoping for better than expected results to yield a profit.
I would say that if you were trying to 'play it safe' and enjoy your day at Jai Alai while minimizing your losses, it represents a good strategy.
You would spend $120 on a performance and would likely only need 1 ticket to break even.
