Jai-alai Question of the Week


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Re(1): On behalf of Bluto...

Posted on March 25, 2011 at 02:54:08 PM by jaialaitv

"...I think that putting a chip on 4/13 in every 7-pt singles games where the key player has ANY kind of runout potential is a sophisticated angle, and probably a long-term winner."

Interesting thought, but I would lean towards no statistical long term winning from any post.

If you only wagered average or better win% players (12%+), and you assume $120/$1 payout, you could expect to win 12/100 which would yield about $1500 in return.

Thats only if you won EVERY game with your covered #'s. Of course you would lose some to non covered wagers. The 'run out' covers about 60% of the likely numbers for a Post 4, so you could expect to lose about 40% even when post 4 wins due to uncovered numbers.

This would reduce your expected wins from 12 to about 8 therefore reducing your expected return to about $1000.

Now wagering on those 100 games would cost: 100 Games * $10/gm bet = $1000 wagered

4/12/ALL $8

4/3/12 $2

You would be teetering on break even and hoping for better than expected results to yield a profit.

I would say that if you were trying to 'play it safe' and enjoy your day at Jai Alai while minimizing your losses, it represents a good strategy.

You would spend $120 on a performance and would likely only need 1 ticket to break even.

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