#4 - ... 2 Exactas, 1 Quiniela: Any difference?

Posted on September 8, 2003 at 00:07:38 AM by Tiger

Tiger's note: 8 messages from the original discussion were lost when the
Boards2Go server crashed, but the message subject lines were recovered.
The follow-up thread, with tabular analysis and discussion, is complete.

How 'bout them exactas? Let's say you like #2 and #3, but don't want to bet 2 exactas, so you bet one Quiniela instead. Is it really the same?

Data for Miami '02 (Winter-Spring) 3,110 games
Quiniela bet = $2
Exacta bet = $3

Most frequent combo
             #times  Avg pay   Per $
Quiniela 2-3   205    27.44      .90
Exacta   2-3    79    91.89      .78
Exacta   3-2   126    78.00     1.05
Both Exactas   205    83.35      .92

Least frequent combo
             #times  Avg pay   Per $
Quiniela 7-8    31   105.21      .52
Exacta   7-8     7   294.94      .22
Exacta   8-7    24   323.98      .83
Both Exactas    35   317.42      .53

Imagine, the 8-7 Exacta actually paid more (on average) than the 7-8

CAUTION: These results are for one season only.

Anyway, for these two (atypical?) combos, it looks like 1 Quiniela vs, 2 Exactas is a wash - no apparent difference in the overall total payout.

But, look at those exactas again! For each pair of numbers, there's a good one and a bad one. Maybe,.....we should just bet the good ones.

What do YOU do?

I'll publish all the combos after you guys have had a chance to chime in

Replies:

Entire Table Published! - By Tiger September 12, 2003 at 12:32:17 AM
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Re(1): #4 - ... 2 Exactas, 1 Quiniela: Any difference? - By Gabe September 10, 2003 at 12:12:39 AM
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Gabe..... - By Tiger September 10, 2003 at 05:13:38 PM
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Re(1): #4 - ... 2 Exactas, 1 Quiniela: Any difference? - By BRNE September 8, 2003 at 08:01:41 PM
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Re(1): #4 - ... 2 Exactas, 1 Quiniela: Any difference? - By Bennett September 8, 2003 at 03:02:31 AM
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Re(2): #4 - ... 2 Exactas, 1 Quiniela: Any difference? - By Bennett September 8, 2003 at 03:05:05 AM
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Re(3): #4 - ... 2 Exactas, 1 Quiniela: Any difference? - By Mark K. September 8, 2003 at 08:11:09 AM
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Re(4): #4 - ... 2 Exactas, 1 Quiniela: Any difference? - By Perry September 8, 2003 at 11:08:34 AM
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#4 - Quiniela vs. Exacta boxing. The results are in.

Posted on September 12, 2003 at 12:35:52 AM by Tiger

Well, the opinions are in, so here's the entire table (link below).

Note there do seem to be some differences, both plus and minus, but remember, it's only for one season and the numbers are small.

Of greater interest, I think, are some of the wide discrepancies for the exacta pairs.

Quiniela vs. Exacta boxing

Replies:

Very Interesting - By Craig G September 13, 2003 at 04:11:16 AM
Scoring bias vs. public betting - By Tiger September 13, 2003 at 11:19:28 AM
Single vs Doubles - By Factor X September 13, 2003 at 02:04:23 AM
Single vs. Doubles - By Tiger September 13, 2003 at 11:32:50 AM
"True Odds" = Questionable Term - By Craig G September 13, 2003 at 03:48:14 AM
Correction: Not True Odds - By Factor X September 13, 2003 at 05:12:24 AM
Well-reasoned, X-man. - By Tiger September 13, 2003 at 11:23:10 AM
Re(1): #4 - Quiniela vs. Exacta boxing. The results are in. - By BRNE September 12, 2003 at 04:23:24 PM
Don't blame random posts for that - By Craig G September 13, 2003 at 04:21:15 AM
Re(1): Don't blame random posts for that - By BRNE September 13, 2003 at 12:19:20 AM
It's not the random seeding. - By Tiger September 13, 2003 at 04:52:34 PM
No way! - By Tiger September 13, 2003 at 11:10:11 AM
Re(2): Question #4: Quiniela vs. Exacta boxing. The results are in. - By Joe V September 12, 2003 at 05:45:57 PM