Jai-Alai Question of the Week

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#283 - How will you play Dania's Pick-5?

Posted on January 12, 2009 at 01:24:46 PM by Tiger

Don't get me wrong. I like it and I'll be a player. And, again, kudos to Dania for continuing to try new ideas. But, no way it will EVER cap. I'll be surprised if it gets above $12,000 before it's snatched.

The $5K could even go on the first night. Let's assume the 'regular' bettors bet $1,000, and the takeout is 20%. Then, suppose I cover the field for $16,384 (50 cent bet). I'll obviously win or share the jackpot. If I'm the only winner, I net $2,523+. If someone else does it, too, I'm only out $377.

The lure gets stronger as the jackpot grows (although it will stay at $5,000 for a while 'til the carryover catches up).

Let's say there's $8,000 in the carryover. I bet $16K and, if I'm the only winner, I net $4,800 in the process. If there's another guy who tries it at the same time, we both still win $800. If there are three of us, I get back $15,467 of my $16K bet - still a trivial hit for that kind of bet. Of course, those numbers suffer if one of the 'regular' bettors scores, but that's not too likely.

It looks like Dania will come out smelling like a rose from those $16K plungers, but the highly touted forced payout will just never happen.

It's an interesting statistical play, though, to figure out the best time to make that $16K plunge, i.e., to be the first (and only) one to do it. Or, if you can knock out one post in each game, it's an $8,404 bet - are you willing to risk it?

I still think it should be a $1 bet.

I believe the $5,000 'seed money' jackpot can only go to a live bettor, until the pool builds up a carryover of it's own.

So, how will you play it?


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