(It’s been a while, so there’s a link to Part 1 below)
There are actually 3 different situations:
1. Normal games, without a carryover (ALWAYS in Game 4)
2. Games with 1 or 2 carryovers (could happen in Games 7 or 9), no force
3. Games with 1, 2, or 3 carryovers and forced payout (Game 12 ONLY)
The ever-increasing jackpot changes the payoff dynamics each
time it happens. And, as the per-game pool increases, does playing
consolations (as an angle) make more sense?
Here’s what one of you said:
I will only bet a carryover because the super pools are way to small. If there is a double-carry and I'm watching online, then I'll head to the nearest parimutual and take a shot. The only problem is,in the event of a double-carry there are animals who bet about $800 to cover all of the probable combos, making a lousy payoff. For instance, about three months ago the first three supers carried and the pool in the 12th reached over 10g's. The game ended 8-1-3-7 and the payout was like $1500 for a $2 bet. That means about fifteen people hit it at a $1 bet each. Now those are some tough numbers, and two of the teams were longshots in the quin/exacta pools.
Does the presumably-increasing per-game betting pool stay proportionally
the same, combo-wise, or are there detectable shifts?
Do box bettors screw up the good payoffs when a long one comes
in?
So, I ran some numbers:
For the first 250 performances(1,000 games):
Game #Consol 1-carry 2-carry 3-carry 4 84 75 8 1 7 44 42 2 n/a 9 45 45 n/a n/a 12 40 n/a n/a n/a Total 213 162 10 1
Therefore, there is a consolation in about 21 percent of the
games, a carryover in about 17 percent of the games.
Consolations were twice as likely in Game 4 as in the other cames.
Explanations sought. Late arrivals=smaller pool?
Game 4 Average Net Pools by day (when there was a carry-over)
Count Pool
Sun 14 957
Mon 1 680
Tue Mat 17 1,017
Tue Eve 8 1,129
Wed 9 1,217
Thu 4 1,400
Fri 7 1,144
Sat Mat 12 1,006
Sat Eve 10 1,147
-- -----
Tot/Avg 82 1,079Throwing out the Monday special performance, we see that the
larger the pool, the fewer the carryovers (Duh!)
The average Game 4 carryover ($810) exceeds the takeout (average
= $450) for Game 7. Thus, Game 7 has a POSITIVE EXPECTATION !!!
The same applies to games 9 and 12, and the effect increases if
there are multiple carryovers.
The only TRIPLE carryover added nearly $7,000 to the Game
12 pool.
My data is incomplete and still a bit crude, but it is clear that
per game Superfecta betting INCREASES (probably about 50%) when
there is a carryover from the previous game. Even more so (double)
if there's a double carryover. Can't say yet if the HANDLE actually
increases (I'm gonna have to watch the exact pools as it happens)
- it's quite possible that bettors chasing the Super/Super carryover
don't make their normal Trifecta bets. We'll see.
Interestingly, the use of the Super/Super carryover as a marketing
incentive is self-limiting, because
the more people that show up due to the promotion, the less
likely is a consolation (and carryover).
Part
1 - What's with Dania's SUPER Superfecta?
