The Limits of Handicapping

Posted on September 13, 2003 at 03:52:08 PM by Craig G

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There have been many jai-alai discussion boards, but I don't ever recall seeing this topic.

So here goes - if you look at the game from a basic win probability perspective, what are the reasonable limits of handicapping?

Personally, I don't think you can consistently do much better than a 1 in 3 rate for top selections in best posts.

And for eliminations, I think that it would be tough to get your dogs-in-the-worst-posts to win less that 1 in 20. Even that could be too high, maybe 1 in 15 is more like it.

However, I do believe that in most games there are 1 or more teams posted as say 8-1 longshots who are closer to 15 or 20 to 1 in "handicapping probability".

Any thoughts?

Replies:

Re(1): The Limits of Handicapping - By Tiger September 14, 2003 at 05:27:29 PM
Odds Line - By Factor X September 13, 2003 at 10:12:32 PM
Re(1): Odds Line - By Craig G September 14, 2003 at 05:06:07 PM
Re(1): The Limits of Handicapping - By Perry September 13, 2003 at 05:56:09 PM
I like cases like that... - By Craig G September 14, 2003 at 04:17:08 PM
Re(2): The Limits of Handicapping - By i aggree perri! September 13, 2003 at 11:16:16 PM
Re(3): The Limits of Handicapping - By alf from melmac September 14, 2003 at 02:09:58 AM