Jai-Alai Chalk Talk Hall of Fame

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The Limits of Handicapping

Posted on September 13, 2003 at 03:52:08 PM by Craig G

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There have been many jai-alai discussion boards, but I don't ever recall seeing this topic.

So here goes - if you look at the game from a basic win probability perspective, what are the reasonable limits of handicapping?

Personally, I don't think you can consistently do much better than a 1 in 3 rate for top selections in best posts.

And for eliminations, I think that it would be tough to get your dogs-in-the-worst-posts to win less that 1 in 20. Even that could be too high, maybe 1 in 15 is more like it.

However, I do believe that in most games there are 1 or more teams posted as say 8-1 longshots who are closer to 15 or 20 to 1 in "handicapping probability".

Any thoughts?


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