(from 2004)
We've discussed runouts before. For example, in a 7-point game:
- Teams 1, 2 and 3 need 7 straight points (1 chance in 128) to
end the game
- Teams 4 and 5 need 6 points (1 in 64)
- Teams 6 and 7 need 5 points (1 in 32)
- Team 8 needs 4 points (1 in 16)
But, when we get into the second round, any team that gets up
will need no more than 4 wins to bag the game.
#8, #1 and #2 each have a 50% chance of being one of the first
teams to play for double points. #8 would have 1 point, #1 or
#2 would have 0 points, in this instance. So, #8 would be 3 points
from a win, #1 or #2 would be 4 points away from a win. Again,
in this particular instance:
#8 will win 3 points 1 time in 8
#1 or #2 will win 4 points 1 time in 16
After each point, the next team up will be no more than 4 points
away, and so forth. So, the chances of a second round runout are
pretty good.
Do you play this angle (and think about how the already-awarded
points could be spread) when you're picking your tris?