Jai-Alai Question of the Week


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Re(4): #85 - Runouts redux: Are you watching?

Posted on March 29, 2005 at 09:35:46 AM by Tiger

I do, but you can make a case the other way.

When I'm making picks (with the automated system, that is), I throw every negative I can at the projected outputs. Pool dilution, tax effect, statistical variance, corrections for small numbers of observations, etc. My theory is than anything that can survive that is a good bet.

So, in that scenario, I add my bets to the pool and recompute the expected payout.

You could also say that your bet is just part of the great statistical swamp, especially if you're always in there with lots of dollars, anyway.

It would be interesting to run some of my historical analyses both ways.

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