Jai-Alai Question of the Week


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Some Stats A Thought

Posted on May 5, 2004 at 12:27:58 PM by Roger

My (old) stats for doubles 7 point games, (i.e., no singles or 9 point games), at Miami, with random selection of players, show these to be the 5 quinielas which come in the most, in order, (most to least): 1-3, 1-2, 1-4, 2-3, and 2-4; (1-2 and 1-4 are tied for second place, coming in the same amount of times). In the same type of games, the 5 quinilas which come in the least, in order, (least to most), are: 7-8, 5-6, 5-7, 6-7, and 4-7. The 1-3 came in exactly 8 times as much as the 7-8. I do not know whether the 7-8 paid, on average, 8 times the amount which the 1-3 paid, on average. My thought on this matter, though, is that if I am making bets on a game, I would more readily bet the 1-3 than the 7-8. While the total of all of the 7-8 payoffs in a season may be greater than the total of the 1-3 payoffs, (and I do not know that for sure), the chances that I will be betting a game in which the 7-8 comes in are too low. At least, with the 1-3, I have a decent chance of winning a game that I am betting on. Even the most avid of us jai-alai fans don't bet every game of the season. I want to have a decent chance to hit on the games that I bet. This assumes, of course, that the 1-3 and 7-8 payoffs are relatively in proportion to the number of times that they come in. The hard stats and payoffs are one thing - but, you have to figure that the number of games that you bet is limited; you may never hit a 7-8.

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