Jai-Alai Question of the Week


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Re(1): Some Stats A Thought

Posted on May 5, 2004 at 02:43:45 PM by Craig G

Interesting points.

However, I believe that there is another way of looking at the "bad" numbers like 78 and 56, that can actually justify playing them.

Essentially, I think that you can profitably look at jai-alai wagering from a very fundamental W and P perspective.

To illustrate, years ago I was influenced by a horse racing guru who advised betting W + P in a 1 to 2 ratio. For me, that translated to $6 to win and a Q-wheel on my key selections.

The rationale for including the bad numbers in the wheel is that you want to ensure that you always collect when your handicapping is right. Using that method I won a number of 78 Q's at over $100 each. It's fun to have an 8-all Q wager and think "I smell a 78 brewing".

But in order for that method to work, your handicapping has to be very good. Eg: if, according to your judgement, the 8 is 50% more likely than normal to W or P, then maybe the bad number is actually an overlay. Or at least a long term breakeven bet

Anyway, even if you can prove that including the bad numbers is a net negative return, it is still potentially a tradeoff, owing to the positive feedback factor you get from cashing more often. This is especially important if your method entails a lot of observations, judgement, and last second decisions. You want to keep your mind as focused and positive as possible. Which is hard to do following a game where you "knew" the 8 would win, but left out 68 and 78.

One last point. That was years ago, when the win pools were better. Today the $6 to win probably wouldn't work out too well.

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