Interesting points.
However, I believe that there is another way of looking at the
"bad" numbers like 78 and 56, that can actually justify
playing them.
Essentially, I think that you can profitably look at jai-alai
wagering from a very fundamental W and P perspective.
To illustrate, years ago I was influenced by a horse racing guru
who advised betting W + P in a 1 to 2 ratio. For me, that translated
to $6 to win and a Q-wheel on my key selections.
The rationale for including the bad numbers in the wheel is that
you want to ensure that you always collect when your handicapping
is right. Using that method I won a number of 78 Q's at over $100
each. It's fun to have an 8-all Q wager and think "I smell
a 78 brewing".
But in order for that method to work, your handicapping has to
be very good. Eg: if, according to your judgement, the 8 is 50%
more likely than normal to W or P, then maybe the bad number is
actually an overlay. Or at least a long term breakeven bet
Anyway, even if you can prove that including the bad numbers is
a net negative return, it is still potentially a tradeoff, owing
to the positive feedback factor you get from cashing more often.
This is especially important if your method entails a lot of observations,
judgement, and last second decisions. You want to keep your mind
as focused and positive as possible. Which is hard to do following
a game where you "knew" the 8 would win, but left out
68 and 78.
One last point. That was years ago, when the win pools were better.
Today the $6 to win probably wouldn't work out too well.
