the runout math is still important. Although in our all-teams-equal theoretical model the 8 runs it only 1 in 16 times, that STILL constitutes more than HALF of the total wins for post 8.
So win-wise for post 8, the 15 out of 16 cases are still the minority, though just barely, since overall the 8 wins 1 out of 8.5 times in our hypothetical scenario.