My page doesn't have anything about numbers being due.
However, the single biggest 'promoter' of a 45 Q result
would be to have a very weak team or player in post 6. In theory,
if all posts were of equal ability except for post 6, and post
6 was projected to win only 1 out of every 3 points it played,
then the 45 Q would go from a base probabilty of 1 in 45 down
to about 1 in 30. That is huge.
And, since "a rising tide lifts all boats", trifecta
numbers like 453 and 543 would become serious overlays. Naturally,
the odds get even better if the 4 and 5 are a little bit above
average in quality as well.
The problem is that this situation does not occur very often,
and even when it does, you still face the likelihood of losing
the Q 24 out of 25 times.
But, if I were attending Orlando or FP - where the range in talent
level is so extreme - I would go ahead and bet those numbers (along
with 45/12 and 54/12) whenever the 6 was horrible, secure in the
belief that it was a long term winning play overlaid by 50% or more.
