Jai-alai Question of the Week


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Re(1): #385 - (redux) Who uses a computer for analysis?

Posted on February 13, 2011 at 11:45:20 AM by logit

I am a total computer nerd. So much so that I must sheepishly confess that I don't have any interest jai alai as a sport. But I love computer programming and data analysis and I've had occasional binges with jai alai analysis over a 35+ year period.

Currently I use R, a programming language designed for data analysis. I've got code that can scrape the Dania web site and load in a whole season of data in one pass. It even has pretty good algorithms to try to notice and deal with scratches. Writing something like that is my idea of a good time. (For example, I used it as an opportunity to play around with so-called 'regular expressions' more than I have done in the past.) It can be a challenge to write code that can successfully parse sometimes messy Dania results. I rely on monte carlo simulations and a lot of work on how to go from stats about game outcomes to estimates of the probability that a team will win a particular point. That's hard to do.

So where does all this computer power get me? Not too far. Unlike Jeopardy contestants, I don't think humans (or at least the humans at this site) have much to fear from my computer programs. I can do better than the average bettor, but not better than the savvy readers of this site. Part of what I like about jai alai is that it's hard to analyze (because of the way points play out during the rotation of teams). Maybe if I were a better statistician it would be different. I'd rate myself as just a junior varsity statistician, maybe at the level of someone who got a BS in statistics. I am not in the same league as a PhD statistician. I was not very impressed by the data analysis in Skiena's Calculated Bets. To get a feel for where I'm coming from, see the article on "logit" in Wikipedia.

I was spending time on this last summer, and then had to refocus my attention on my day job. Maybe I'll go on another binge this summer.

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