Good question, Tiger ... lol
Actually, there are plenty of complexities. Of course, you could bet #1 or #2 all the time. You'd win 1 out of 6 (167 total), but what's the fun in that?
My system results differ, depending on which models and options I'm using, and I look at each season as a single entity, so, naturally, there's some variability. But, picking the winner is the single measure of the goodness of my ratings. Actual betting strategy is in a totally separate sub-system.
Overall, I'm slightly better than 1 in 5, though I have hit 1 in 4 a couple of times. Make it 213, then (better in singles and 9-pointers, no surprise there).
That's based on 52 full seasons of computer data.
