One way to get a handle on what's really going on here is to
go into Jai-Alai Heaven and look at "Quiniela vs. Boxed Exacta Analysis"
You can ignore the Q vs Ex part and just look at what the worst
Q's and Ex's return as a percent. "Everyone knows" that
Q's 57, 67 and 78 are among the least likely, but the horrible
returns show that they are still being overbet by a large margin.
OTOH, the good Ex's like 31, 32, 12, 21, 41, 42, 13, and 23 are
all doing better than the takeout, with a couple actually beating it.
