It goes without saying that your chance of success with this is much greater in a singles game.
A while back I posted that in singles post 2 can effectively be post 1, provided that 1 is a poor to mediocre server, and post 2 is a strong receiver. The same reasoning works for post 3 if 1 and 2 are nothing special serve-wise.
One of the side benefits of this type of bet is that once your 3 wins, you have the fun of rooting for the statistically worst guy in the playoffs.
Here is an actual result from Oct 2 Fri that I was fortunate to win for $6 cost.
GAME 11 3 Solozabal 12.40 4.00 2.40 1 Diego 3.20 3.00 5 Oyarbide 0.00 QUINIELA 1-3 22.40 EXACTA 3-1 30.90 TRIFECTA 3-1-5 209.60
Terrific, considering Solo was at the peak of his singles form about then.
Doesn't quite fit the pattern I mentioned because Diego is the opposite of being a weak server. But it was a tradeoff because it was that consideration that allowed it to be 3/1/all without also covering the 2. And of course Solo is a very strong receiver when in form, due to his size and power.
Anyway, in my experience in jai-alai, you seldom get a bet that is perfect in every way. This was still a standout, even though it might have been Diego who ran the table.
As far as Tiger's 1 chance in 30, I don't get the calculation.
But regardless of that, if you are making this play, chances are that you are some kind of handicapper. If not, and you are playing numbers, your chance of the 3 winning is about 1 in 7.2, and runout or not, you are looking at a 31 or 32 about 50% of the time. That make it about a 1 in 14 hit rate.
OTOH, If your handicapping can get your key guy to win 1 out of every 5 times, then you would expect to cash 1 out of 10 times. I wonder if the average tri would be $240 to cover your cost. If not, then you would have to hope for more like a 1 in 4 win rate. Or... as I was able to do here, narrow it down to either the 1 or the 2, and be right most of the time.
So, just be right about the 3 winning somewhere in the 1 out of 5 or 6 range, and choose correctly more times than not on the 1 or 2, and it is definitely a winning play.
And finally, those little exactas are getting consistently hammered in obvious singles spots, and I just can't see anyone getting ahead on $30 for a 3 dollar cost.
