Jai-Alai Question of the Week

Start of Thread

Dime Super Effect?

Posted on April 9, 2008 at 01:51:07 PM by Craig G

I almost posted this yesterday, but it fits here ok.

After looking at game 12 Tues mat:



            GAME 12

9Pts--W-P-S, Qnl, Ex, Tri, Supr

  PLAYER     NO     GP  W  P  S  

ARRIETA      46    116 13 14 24

1 team (all games)  76  5 13  8

OYARBIDE     58    139 23 24 16

EGI          75    158 26 23 12

2 team (all games)  67  6  8  8

URTARAN      89    135 12 14 18

BEITIA       12    102 10 14 11

3 team (all games)  36  0  3  5

OSA          33    145 22 23 21

DIEGO        22    164 21 21 22

4 team (all games)  69  8  8  9

IRU          62    136 12 14 17

ARREGUI      32    129 30 12 11

5 team (all games)  59 14  7  9

HERNANDEZ    93    147 30 22 21

OLHA         17    121 17 16 19

6 team (all games)  50 10  5  8

ENBIL        41    118 19 14 15

ARRIAGA      24     91  8 18 8

7 team (all games)  43  3  8  4

LEO          52    163 14 18 22

CELAYA       20     91 11  9 12

8 team (all games)  47  6  4  3

IKEDA        50    165 16 19 11

(F) TOTO             6  0  0  0

(B)CARVALHO         55  4  5  7




GAME 12 -----------------------------------
5 Arregui-Hernandez 17.00 5.80 3.60
2 Egi-Urtaran 3.80 3.20
8 Celaya-Ikeda 5.80
QUINIELA 2-5 32.20
EXACTA 5-2 117.60
TRIFECTA 5-2-8 429.60
DAILY DOUBLE 1-5 428.40
SFC 5-2-8-4 292.80 P3 8-1-5 739.40

... and others roughly like it, you have to wonder if the
dime super allows bettors to now tee off every which way on obvious key teams to a degree never before seen.

In this game, post 5 Arregui - Hernandez have a team stat that is almost beyond belief, while post 2 Egi - Urtaran are lousy, but still better than their neighbors, and of course Egi is Egi no matter what.

However, if we regard post 5 as overwhelmingly best, with post 2 also superior to 1 and 3, then the 5284 super is still nowhere near a 1 in 146 shot handicapping-wise.

Notice how the win, quin, exacta, tri, and even the DD and P3 have not been pounded at all. Highly significant, IMO.

So without studying or reading up on dime supers in dogs and horses, I would hypothesize that in general, the dime super in any parimutuel venue will have a strong tendency to create seriously overbet faves whenever the key team is an obvious standout.

Home Page