h1>Re(2): #229 - How will you play the 10-cent Pick-6?
Heres my take on the pik 6. There are about 260,000 combinations,
so it will get hit roughly once every 260,000 bets. If everyone
was betting .10 plays, with the takeout (not sure what % it is
on this bet), and the 25% consolation, the average carryover would
be about 15-17k or so before its hit. Anything under that is a
small payout, anything over that would be considered on the higher
end. Now I also dont think everyone will be smart enough to bet
the .10 when betting it, and bet it for $1 combos. If 30% of the
people bet it for $1, that would make the average jackpot about
18-20k.
Im not sure how much will be bet into the pools to start, so its
hard to say how fast it will grow. But when the jackpot gets over
10k, I'm sure it will catch a lot of people's attention, including
mine.
Once it goes over 32k, it sure would make a lot of sense to wheel
it up for 26k, knowing 20k of your 26k bet is going in the pool,
making it 52k+. If you are the only tik, thats a nice 26k+ profit.
Even if you split with another .10 cent winner you break even.
Huge downfall would be someone hitting it for the $1 tik, and
you only win 1/10th or 5,200, for a 20k loss.
Lets say there are $3,000 average bet on this daily when it gets
rollin (I hope more) that would be about 25,000 .10 cent bets
and 500 $1 bets (I figure 20% are clueless and play it for the
$1, although the clueless % may be much, much higher lol), That
means if you wheel it for the dime, the chances of getting hit
by a $1 bomb are about 500/260,000 or 1.92%
And the chances of splitting with another .10 are 25,000/260,000
or 9.6%
88.5% of the time you double your 26k bet
9.6% of the time you break even
1.92% you lose 20k
I like those odds!
