I don't have time to respond point-by-point just now, but would
like to pin you down on the key question.
Looking at singles:
You have a sample size of 1450, with servers winning 54.3%.
You do not wish to attempt player-specific values, instead going
for an ON AVERAGE figure.
That's fine, but at some point you have to commit to a number
for your serve factor. What is it?
If you have a 500 vs 500 matchup then, how often does the server
win?
Or rating A vs rating B, same question.
You said you are "attempting", so maybe you are not
there yet.
