from what i observe, my two top choices
almost never come out as the Quiniela
Let's hypothesize a couple of things.
A - the existence of "win-only" teams or players
B - a higher than random number of them among "the best"
By "win-only" I mean a strong tendency to come thru
all the way or do nothing. Kind of like a volcano.
With this perspective, you can see that if your handicapping or
judgement of the best teams is good, you will automatically be
homing in on many w-o teams. Most of the time only one of them
will kick in. Your chances of hitting the Q will go down considerably.
You would be better off getting 2 exacta's with your key teams
on top and a good place candidate on the bottom.
Bottom line is that an unimpressive Q hit rate for your top 2
selections is not necessarily a bad thing.