Jai-Alai Question of the Week


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Pick a number, any number

Posted on April 15, 2005 at 10:44:59 AM by Craig G

Ok, make that any pair of numbers.

My sim has an interface for 3-digit ratings input, so I can do this fairly quickly.

If we compare ATE (all teams equal} results to the case where the field is 500, and our key posts are 600, we find the following:

Q#      ATE    2 best

12      15       6
13      15       6
14      18       7
15      21       8
16      24       9
17      28      11
18      28      11
23      15       6
24      18       7
25      21       8
26      25       9
27      29      11
28      28      11
34      25      10
35      28      11
36      28      11
37      29      11
38      26      10
45      45      18
46      40      16
47      34      13
48      30      12
56      72      29
57      51      19
58      38      15
67      91      36
68      61      25
78      106     46



The results given are ratios, rounded to whole numbers.

Eg, with ATE, 78 is about a 1 in 106 shot, with 7 and 8 best, it is about 1 in 46.

I am too lazy to tabulate the percent change for each case, but that is the next step.

Of course, going from 500 to 600 might be a little too extreme.

It is possible that you are more likely to find value with the "bad" numbers. Assuming your ratings are really valid.

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