Without having stats on this my guess is that early gamers run out games far more then lates do. In my opinion this makes earlies a lot more predictable. The "dice roll" as you put it would be betting on someone like Wayne. This player is sooo overrated stats or no stats. The guy has heat and great catching BUT his ball placement sucks. How many times does he CONSISTENTLY overthrow the ball? Too many! He loves to rebote on the wood and hit the upper pads out of play. Someone needs some coaching and i'm being serious.
