You made a comment way back when to the effect that a certain
player at Dania only wins in game 12 when the top players have
"thrown in the towel".
That raises the question of whether or not "thrown in the
towel" is a legitimate handicapping concept for jai-alai.
Does it describe the reality on the court in some games?
If yes, then it is one of the 'states' I mentioned that
we might assign to a player to best predict his performance in
a given game.
Personally, I believe that the more expert-level fans who attend
live and try to make sense of what they are watching, are in effect
using 'Quantum Handicapping' without formally labeling
it as that.
Whether it's:
Sensei stating "One final comment on ratings. You should
not hesitate to raise or lower a player's rating temporarily on
any given night if he is playing above or below his normal skill
level. Like any athletes, jai-alai players have hot nights and
cold nights. They fight with their wives, get headaches, indigestion,
etc. Their play on any night may be affected (either way) by many
things. Your job is to observe and adjust your ratings accordingly."
ctshermaneos with, "If Eric or Diego come out fired up in
their first performance..."
or kullster - "After his first game I could decide whether
he was getting put on top of most of my trifectas that night or
getting kicked out of all the others."
... there are consistent comments supporting a belief that the
state of a player RIGHT NOW is often different from what you would
expect from using a formula that evaluates recent results.
The position that we take on this is important both practically
- ie making a profit - and theoretically, to the extent that people
like Tiger try to make an educated judgement as to how often runouts
should occur.
If the elite players who cruise at an overall 60% or better point-winning
rate sometimes have turbocharged days where they are winning at
an 80% rate, which are counterbalanced by some days at 40%, then
the impact on the win rate and runout rate is HUGE.
