Now anything is possible but I bet if
you kept track you would come to find out that the percentages
of
players losing when they are in the money are the same as every
other point.
That's a good way of putting it because it takes into account
the key factor which is overlooked by the dumpster folks.
Namely, that most of time the team with game point is going to
be the objectively stronger team.
Imagine a weak team in post 2 that scored 2 pts and is now receiving
from Bolivar-Felix who are wrapping around from post 7 with game
point. Of course Bolivar-Felix are more likely to win the point.
I guarantee that if I set up a simulation with randomly selected
team strengths, we would find that the serving team with PGP usually
has the higher rating.
Which means that even if we kept a tally of dump scenario outcomes,
the expected honest result might be closer to 60-40 than
50-50.
